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Anderson, Ben and Stoneman, Paul (2009) Predicting the socio-technical future (and other myths). In: ICT Futures: Delivering Pervasive, Real-time and Secure Services. Wiley, Chichester. ISBN 0470997702 (In Press)

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Abstract

A snooker ball model implies that simple, linear and predictable social change follows from the introduction of new technologies. Unfortunately technology does not have and has never had simple linear predictable social impacts. In this chapter we show that in most measurable ways, the pervasiveness of modern information and communication technologies has had little discernable ‘impact’ on most human behaviours of sociological significance. Historians of technology remind us that human society co-evolves with the technology it invents and that the eventual social and economic uses of a technology often turn out to be far removed from those originally envisioned. Rather than using the snooker ball model to attempt to predict future ICT usage and revenue models that are inevitably wrong, we suggest that truly participatory, grounded innovation, open systems and adaptive revenue models can lead us to a more effective, flexible and responsive innovation process.

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